After reading "
Web search queries can predict stock market volumes" I decided to replicate the study using
Google Insights for Search to look for more meaningful trends. A more in-depth post will be done later, here I am just presenting some cautious considerations for the readers of the study.
Part of the curious methodology of the paper was its filtering of non-working days. Using "AAPL" as an example, we can see why. How would the inclusion of the increased weekend queries influence the tests for granger causality?
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaxW5efQCCutdQiiw1r11M0EMwQ0bF2e8mtkro2GsHGJBMc51wCvXc6Zv8lnT0IzXQPLvGHhzlO6r8tIMPF6ad3o1trwYMPpCd5LNP5cLtzNubyA6qW0rod3gPzDPJexDI2tFsTZhOQaQX/s400/days.png) |
Normalized data of daily trading and query volumes for AAPL excluding weekends for last 90 days |
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLsxSPFqnVR0aSjIZDmzD1PSnYJuRSiduqHTRDSkNwpPN0YrpDdgIE36UWmE38oP8Cumh29to4wmioDheq5CClyCIpCWY5pjfkc8ERtWQUb7i6COPgDhe6GPsvYWU2nws4NkcQgQmDW1Xw/s400/days-with-weekends.png) |
Normalized data of daily trading and query volumes for AAPL with weekends for last 90 days |
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