Monday, November 7, 2011

Web Search Queries Predict Stock Market Trading Volumes, really?

After reading "Web search queries can predict stock market volumes" I decided to replicate the study using Google Insights for Search to look for more meaningful trends.  A more in-depth post will be done later, here I am just presenting some cautious considerations for the readers of the study.

Part of the curious methodology of the paper was its filtering of non-working days.  Using "AAPL" as an example, we can see why.  How would the inclusion of the increased weekend queries influence the tests for granger causality?


Normalized data of daily trading and query volumes for AAPL excluding weekends for last 90 days

Normalized data of daily trading and query volumes for AAPL with weekends for last 90 days

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